Thank you for talking me off the ledge Doc. Your take on the Big 162 is spot on, as always. Well written distraction from the current Reds woes. Seems like Groundhog Day.
Just wondering one thing about the Reds (David Bell): Why did the lineup change immediately after the All-Star break? Winning before, losing since. Same thing in 2021, same ressult. I refer to it as: managing the club right out of the playoffs. We watch, we'll see. Not over yet. Just observing, not "over" reacting. Of course the Reds are not asking for my opinion anyway. So....
I’m no Shakespearean scholar but I do know the better balcony scene from the 1974 Brothers Grimm live production of Rapunzel by Peter Wolf starring Reputah the Beautah and Wooba Gooba with the green teeth. It’s also one of many songs that I feel the need to push the volume to eleven.
Arguably, one of the greatest intro’s in the history of rock and roll.
“Flip down your hair and let me climb up the ladder of your love.”
It's been great to see the big crowds these past few weeks. What a change from earlier this year. Reds, Bengals, FCC all competitive and fun to watch? Yes please and thank you!
Sometime back in 2016, most likely after Halloween and before Thanksgiving, nestled in that ink-stained era after the first of the November but before the calendar lurched into the double digits, sooooomewhere there in there, I stopped making predictions. I’ve adopted the philosophy that either something is going to happen, or it is not. Probability is a fool’s errand, and everything is exactly 50-50, chump. The Reds play a game that forces their opponent to make major league plays. A disproportionate portion of their good fortune resulted from mistakes being made. That seems to have evaporated in this, the doldrums.
I was listening last night when Farmer plunked a Marlin, after retiring the previous two batters, and then was yanked by Bell for Sims. Something just told me, intuitively, that Soler was going to make Bell and the Reds pay for that decision.
Sure enough, here's Sims with a meatball down the heart of the plate, and you could hear Cowboy's tone change immediately as he detailed that ball going into the bleachers.
Do I think Bell yanked Farmer too early, stupidly, for one lousy pitch? Yes. Do I think Bell stupidly brought in a guy who's been walking a tightrope for most of the year -- I don't want to hear about how great his spin rate is -- and barely escaping jams, to face the Marlins' biggest deep threat? Yes.
It's starting to boil down to stupid decisions, truthfully, when it comes to the basics. As a previous commenter said, thrown out at third stealing to end an inning? That's basic Little League stuff -- you never do that! Allowing baserunners to reach on strike threes (Chicago series) and then imploding right after that? No runner should reach first base on a strike three.
It's examples such as that which are starting to add up ... it's not "we're tired." That's a cockamamie reason.
I don't want to hear the "tired" excuse from baseball players. We've got landscapers, ditch diggers, construction workers, etc., working 8-12 hours a day in more laborious professions than baseball, who are clocking in daily and working all day in the outdoors without the luxury of personal trainers, culinary staff, therapists, etc., and they're getting the job done. The guys on this club are pretty much standing or sitting-- most of the game, at least -- for two and a half hours 162 times through the spring, summer and early fall, playing a game, and making hundreds of thousands (or millions) playing it, on top of having the best resources on hand for personal health, recovery and more.
Unless they're "tired" of going through the motions. That I can see and, if that's the case, that falls back on the manager not addressing it, and on the players themselves to personally buck up for the stretch run.
Here's where the rubber meets the road for Bell, and it becomes time to lead, not just manage, in my opinion -- especially with this young group. We'll see how he fairs.
Kids, like OGs, have short memories, albeit for different reasons, as we OGs unfortunately know. Luckily a short memory is a very useful tool to have in a pennant chase. Kids can bury the memory of a bad stretch fast, and they have no permanent scarring or ingrained memories of past disasters. Heck, they're still seeing ballparks for the first time. It's still very fresh and new to them. They wake up every day still pinching themselves that they're in the major leagues.
OK, so what's my point? Well, quoting my favorite Zen Master; " 'In the beginner's mind there are many possibilities, but in the expert's there are few." These kids are awake and raw, new, anxious to prove themselves. They won't quit until the last game. Their future depends on how they play now. So, even though the odds say this team should regress to the mean, I also say that all it'll take is one more sustained hot streak to restore the earlier infectious confidence and wild abandon on the base paths. That means De La Cruz will have to go back to getting on base, which seems a large ask, but not impossible, the other rooks will have to continue to produce, the bullpen will have to pitch like the 1st half, and Bell will have to go back to being the great juggler he was for the only time in his career during the huge hot streak. Seems like a tall task, but.......they've already done it once. Why not twice? If they get hot again, they'll be in it all the way to the end. That will be fun. So, there is still an upside, potentially, in play. That's about all we got to hang our hat on right now. .
Very wise words, Pogo-san. Although after today's hideous loss, I hope DLC remembers that running until you're out is a bad idea. He hurt them twice today with terrible base running.
Yep, saw it. Stupid stuff like that eventually comes back to who's managing. Good managers won't tolerate that stuff, and enforce consequences. Cruz's poor strike zone awareness is an even bigger issue. He is quite honestly not major league ready yet, not even close, at the plate. No discipline whatsoever. There is absolutely no reason for him to bat lead-off. Bell's obsession with 2-out bullpen switches is insane, too. It's been blowing up on him for years and he refuses to change. He is one very dense, very slow witted human being sometimes.
Moll to the rescue is certainly not much of a strategy 🤪. And DLC over Freidl at leadoff simply has to stop. How long is before DB gets that? But on balance, I'm okay with Bell. He handles the players well and I think that's still what matters most.
At some point the Reds stupid baserunning isn't "putting pressure on the defense" or living up to some old Rolen standard, it's just stupid baserunning. Ending an inning trying to steal third? Inexcusable.
And the Fairchild play. No outs, and our guy somehow ends up hanging out between home and third praying for the catcher to misplay the ball. What was that??!?! I wish they gave us more replay angles because I really wanted to see what House was doing. The last thing a third base coach can be is indecisive.
Heaven help me, I overreact to the Reds nightly ups and downs. It might bring an early grave, but it gives me a lot of thrills along the way.
Last to first would be a miracle. Last to third is an improvement.
You can't sustain a 3o% caught stealing rate, #29/3o in the league. 2o% at the most, 15% would be better. You just can't give away outs or baserunners at that rate and win, especially in a HR haven park. 38% CS at GASP is mindbogglingly bad. 25% was the league outlier (last column, sortable headers) last year and they've made it easier to steal this year
Young guys can certainly be tired. They are more likely to stay out all night partying. The sweet spot is probably late 20s to early 30s, when most have settled down.
The great 162 is definitely upon us all here in Reds country. Shouldn’t be much of a surprise, happens every year. If you would have told me in spring training we’d be playing for it in August I would have laughed at your tom foolery. But, I would have also taken it…especially after the comical year that was 2022.
That said, what this litter of puppies clearly lacks the most seams to be leadership. Someone tugging the lead in the right direction in times of “now what”. Bell is not that guy. Regardless of what just happened on the field he is stone faced. Mr uninteresting. Catch an interview or two of him talking about the state of things. I bet you can’t stay awake. I nod off every time. The youngins need more. Case in point, I’ve lost count as to how many times I’ve watched whomever is currently holding the bat stroll slowly back to the dugout in a daze of WTH just happened after having just struck out….looking. This has happened way too many times in critical situations. Down a run or two, late in the game, runners on base, etc. Boys, we’re trying to win here. You know, score more runs than them. Hard to accomplish with said bat on the shoulder. If Bell were any kind of leader an animated postgame “we’re not going to lose looking” conversation would have already taken place. Dude doesn’t have to go Defcon 1 to make his point, ala Sweet Lou. Although, I probably would. I’m not allowed in the clubhouse. Still…feel pretty certain this hasn’t happened.
It's a fair point, but as I've said a bunch here, I like the tone Bell has set this year. It fits this group of players. Lots of very good managers require a player presence for leadership. See: Baker, Dusty. When India is seen as am imdispensible leader, maybe Bell's not getting a lot of help on that score.
Agreed. India would be the first to come to mind for that. A steady as she goes tone is warranted for a good chunk of the 162. Spark from forging the iron, I’d argue just as important.
Was at the yard last night and (again) was entertained to the last out.
A few blowouts in Chicago aside, this team has a chance every night. They're still on the right side of .500, still in a pennant race. All of which is remarkable and exciting. With a quarter(ish) of the Big 162 still ahead, I plan to enjoy the ride regardless of where it drops us off. This is fun, even in the midst of a slide.
Thank you for talking me off the ledge Doc. Your take on the Big 162 is spot on, as always. Well written distraction from the current Reds woes. Seems like Groundhog Day.
Shakespeare! Careful … you’ll be censored (in Florida).
Just wondering one thing about the Reds (David Bell): Why did the lineup change immediately after the All-Star break? Winning before, losing since. Same thing in 2021, same ressult. I refer to it as: managing the club right out of the playoffs. We watch, we'll see. Not over yet. Just observing, not "over" reacting. Of course the Reds are not asking for my opinion anyway. So....
I’m no Shakespearean scholar but I do know the better balcony scene from the 1974 Brothers Grimm live production of Rapunzel by Peter Wolf starring Reputah the Beautah and Wooba Gooba with the green teeth. It’s also one of many songs that I feel the need to push the volume to eleven.
Arguably, one of the greatest intro’s in the history of rock and roll.
“Flip down your hair and let me climb up the ladder of your love.”
If you know you know.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gW0hxbrmFhM
As n increases to infinity you reach a normal distribution.
It's been great to see the big crowds these past few weeks. What a change from earlier this year. Reds, Bengals, FCC all competitive and fun to watch? Yes please and thank you!
Sometime back in 2016, most likely after Halloween and before Thanksgiving, nestled in that ink-stained era after the first of the November but before the calendar lurched into the double digits, sooooomewhere there in there, I stopped making predictions. I’ve adopted the philosophy that either something is going to happen, or it is not. Probability is a fool’s errand, and everything is exactly 50-50, chump. The Reds play a game that forces their opponent to make major league plays. A disproportionate portion of their good fortune resulted from mistakes being made. That seems to have evaporated in this, the doldrums.
I was listening last night when Farmer plunked a Marlin, after retiring the previous two batters, and then was yanked by Bell for Sims. Something just told me, intuitively, that Soler was going to make Bell and the Reds pay for that decision.
Sure enough, here's Sims with a meatball down the heart of the plate, and you could hear Cowboy's tone change immediately as he detailed that ball going into the bleachers.
Do I think Bell yanked Farmer too early, stupidly, for one lousy pitch? Yes. Do I think Bell stupidly brought in a guy who's been walking a tightrope for most of the year -- I don't want to hear about how great his spin rate is -- and barely escaping jams, to face the Marlins' biggest deep threat? Yes.
It's starting to boil down to stupid decisions, truthfully, when it comes to the basics. As a previous commenter said, thrown out at third stealing to end an inning? That's basic Little League stuff -- you never do that! Allowing baserunners to reach on strike threes (Chicago series) and then imploding right after that? No runner should reach first base on a strike three.
It's examples such as that which are starting to add up ... it's not "we're tired." That's a cockamamie reason.
I don't want to hear the "tired" excuse from baseball players. We've got landscapers, ditch diggers, construction workers, etc., working 8-12 hours a day in more laborious professions than baseball, who are clocking in daily and working all day in the outdoors without the luxury of personal trainers, culinary staff, therapists, etc., and they're getting the job done. The guys on this club are pretty much standing or sitting-- most of the game, at least -- for two and a half hours 162 times through the spring, summer and early fall, playing a game, and making hundreds of thousands (or millions) playing it, on top of having the best resources on hand for personal health, recovery and more.
Unless they're "tired" of going through the motions. That I can see and, if that's the case, that falls back on the manager not addressing it, and on the players themselves to personally buck up for the stretch run.
Here's where the rubber meets the road for Bell, and it becomes time to lead, not just manage, in my opinion -- especially with this young group. We'll see how he fairs.
Kids, like OGs, have short memories, albeit for different reasons, as we OGs unfortunately know. Luckily a short memory is a very useful tool to have in a pennant chase. Kids can bury the memory of a bad stretch fast, and they have no permanent scarring or ingrained memories of past disasters. Heck, they're still seeing ballparks for the first time. It's still very fresh and new to them. They wake up every day still pinching themselves that they're in the major leagues.
OK, so what's my point? Well, quoting my favorite Zen Master; " 'In the beginner's mind there are many possibilities, but in the expert's there are few." These kids are awake and raw, new, anxious to prove themselves. They won't quit until the last game. Their future depends on how they play now. So, even though the odds say this team should regress to the mean, I also say that all it'll take is one more sustained hot streak to restore the earlier infectious confidence and wild abandon on the base paths. That means De La Cruz will have to go back to getting on base, which seems a large ask, but not impossible, the other rooks will have to continue to produce, the bullpen will have to pitch like the 1st half, and Bell will have to go back to being the great juggler he was for the only time in his career during the huge hot streak. Seems like a tall task, but.......they've already done it once. Why not twice? If they get hot again, they'll be in it all the way to the end. That will be fun. So, there is still an upside, potentially, in play. That's about all we got to hang our hat on right now. .
Very wise words, Pogo-san. Although after today's hideous loss, I hope DLC remembers that running until you're out is a bad idea. He hurt them twice today with terrible base running.
Yep, saw it. Stupid stuff like that eventually comes back to who's managing. Good managers won't tolerate that stuff, and enforce consequences. Cruz's poor strike zone awareness is an even bigger issue. He is quite honestly not major league ready yet, not even close, at the plate. No discipline whatsoever. There is absolutely no reason for him to bat lead-off. Bell's obsession with 2-out bullpen switches is insane, too. It's been blowing up on him for years and he refuses to change. He is one very dense, very slow witted human being sometimes.
Moll to the rescue is certainly not much of a strategy 🤪. And DLC over Freidl at leadoff simply has to stop. How long is before DB gets that? But on balance, I'm okay with Bell. He handles the players well and I think that's still what matters most.
Although I might add that he should be handling DLC by the lapels this afternoon.
Still Hotel California!
At some point the Reds stupid baserunning isn't "putting pressure on the defense" or living up to some old Rolen standard, it's just stupid baserunning. Ending an inning trying to steal third? Inexcusable.
And the Fairchild play. No outs, and our guy somehow ends up hanging out between home and third praying for the catcher to misplay the ball. What was that??!?! I wish they gave us more replay angles because I really wanted to see what House was doing. The last thing a third base coach can be is indecisive.
Heaven help me, I overreact to the Reds nightly ups and downs. It might bring an early grave, but it gives me a lot of thrills along the way.
Last to first would be a miracle. Last to third is an improvement.
Go O's.
You can't sustain a 3o% caught stealing rate, #29/3o in the league. 2o% at the most, 15% would be better. You just can't give away outs or baserunners at that rate and win, especially in a HR haven park. 38% CS at GASP is mindbogglingly bad. 25% was the league outlier (last column, sortable headers) last year and they've made it easier to steal this year
https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/caught-stealing-per-game
Young guys can certainly be tired. They are more likely to stay out all night partying. The sweet spot is probably late 20s to early 30s, when most have settled down.
The great 162 is definitely upon us all here in Reds country. Shouldn’t be much of a surprise, happens every year. If you would have told me in spring training we’d be playing for it in August I would have laughed at your tom foolery. But, I would have also taken it…especially after the comical year that was 2022.
That said, what this litter of puppies clearly lacks the most seams to be leadership. Someone tugging the lead in the right direction in times of “now what”. Bell is not that guy. Regardless of what just happened on the field he is stone faced. Mr uninteresting. Catch an interview or two of him talking about the state of things. I bet you can’t stay awake. I nod off every time. The youngins need more. Case in point, I’ve lost count as to how many times I’ve watched whomever is currently holding the bat stroll slowly back to the dugout in a daze of WTH just happened after having just struck out….looking. This has happened way too many times in critical situations. Down a run or two, late in the game, runners on base, etc. Boys, we’re trying to win here. You know, score more runs than them. Hard to accomplish with said bat on the shoulder. If Bell were any kind of leader an animated postgame “we’re not going to lose looking” conversation would have already taken place. Dude doesn’t have to go Defcon 1 to make his point, ala Sweet Lou. Although, I probably would. I’m not allowed in the clubhouse. Still…feel pretty certain this hasn’t happened.
It's a fair point, but as I've said a bunch here, I like the tone Bell has set this year. It fits this group of players. Lots of very good managers require a player presence for leadership. See: Baker, Dusty. When India is seen as am imdispensible leader, maybe Bell's not getting a lot of help on that score.
Agreed. India would be the first to come to mind for that. A steady as she goes tone is warranted for a good chunk of the 162. Spark from forging the iron, I’d argue just as important.
Love the "baseballs version of a card counter at the table" quote😂. I crank the sound up on too many to count. Life without music? Ain't having it!
Doc, will we see a pic of you with a glass of Chianti and one of those fancy Italian cigars you’ve raved about from tonite’s event?
Chianti, perhaps. I'm on cigar sabbatical until after the annual NC trip.
Was at the yard last night and (again) was entertained to the last out.
A few blowouts in Chicago aside, this team has a chance every night. They're still on the right side of .500, still in a pennant race. All of which is remarkable and exciting. With a quarter(ish) of the Big 162 still ahead, I plan to enjoy the ride regardless of where it drops us off. This is fun, even in the midst of a slide.