Only 1 Thing About Baseball is Know-able
The Big 162 wins. Every year.
A couple truths this AM:
(1) If you (over)react nightly to a Reds win or loss, you will die an early death.
(A) Nothing in sports is as truthful as a 162-game baseball season.
The two go glove-in-glove, as surely as Run-DLC is the world’s fastest man. Ignore them at your own risk.
*
The Club is currently in the throes of a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. De La Cruz moment. The Reds are 16-18 since July 1, twice having lost six in a row, leavened by a 5-game winning streak. Trying to assess which Club shows up on any given night is like predicting a teenager’s mood. Fans seek explanations. After every L, knees jerk. ACLs are tearing all over town.
We’re short on perspective. These Reds are trying to pull off a double miracle: Rise from last-to-first in the Central while also retaining their vision of the club’s future. The fact they’re still in that game as August goes Dog is remarkable.
OK, Doc. We feel the “but’’ coming. . .
But can they pull it off?
They’re not as aggressive as they were a month or two ago. They’re swinging from their heels. They’re tired. And of course, David Bell is clueless. So we say. Reds fans haven’t been forgiving of a Reds manager since Sparky Anderson.
Baseball Truth is a little more nuanced than that. While it’s true Run-DLC is swinging (and missing) at everything that moves, it’s equally accurate to say the Reds averaged five runs a game in their previous 10 games, and still went only 3-7 in that span. The Club ker-bumps from game to game, but Matt McLain has been a smooth road. The rookie’s batting average hasn’t been below .296 since May 25, his 9th game as a major-leaguer. America’s Team is hitting well enough to win.
(Enquirer)
So, they’re tired. Must be.
I don’t buy this. It’s an excuse, not a reason. While history does suggest that heavy workloads can deaden pitching arms, and every club treats starting pitchers like diamonds under glass, the same shouldn’t be true for 24-year-old position players.
If you replace Joey Votto (39) with Christian Encarnacion-Strand (23) the average age of the starting nine is something approaching 23. You’re telling me that 23-year-olds are going to be mentally and physically spent by the first week of August?
You can’t have it both ways. You can’t argue on the one hand that the Reds have to keep all their great, young talent, then in the next breath bemoan their youth and the supposed limitations it puts on their pennant-push ability to perform.
As far as I know, every team is required to play 162 games. Just because Christian Yelich is 31 doesn’t mean Milwaukee gets to play only 154 times.
So. . . what, then?
Everything in Baseball can be explained by the beauty of the Big 162. The long and grand season eliminates pretenders. You can’t claim to be a Shakespeare expert and not be able to recite the balcony scene. You get found out.
Baseball justice almost never fails. Across six months, honesty prevails. Teams get what they deserve.
The Reds are getting theirs. The young, fun and exquisitely talented team that went 12-0 is the same team that now has lost seven of eight. Elly De La DiMaggio has yielded to the truths of the Big 162. He’s a raw mega-talent who hasn’t mastered the strike zone or his own wild instincts.
Another truth, inarguable: The irony of being little market on Baseball’s big stage is, the more you win, the more you damage your little-market excuses. It’s one thing for Tampa to win metronomically. The Rays have figured a way to beat the odds. They’re Baseball’s version of a card counter at the blackjack table.
When teams such as the Marlins, Brewers, Orioles and Reds all exceed hopes in the same season, well, maybe it’s time to re-think the low-payroll crutch.
Ask the Mets how it feels to buy hamburger at filet prices.
I’d never suggest that money doesn’t make life easier in MLB. Quoting writer Beatrice Kaufman, “I’ve been rich and I’ve been poor. Rich is better.’’ I might offer that in baseball, smart thinwallets can still beat mindless rich people as often as not. What they can’t do well is maintain. Or, rather, “sustain,’’ as Reds GM Nick Krall has put it. And put it and put it.
The Reds are attempting to walk that very high ledge. All we know for sure is, the game will weed them out or embrace them. Either way, it won’t be a fluke. Props to the Big 162.
Now, then. . .
REMIND YOU OF ANYONE’S TEAM? ESPN.com:
"It has been an awesome season, but we haven't won anything yet," Orioles general manager Mike Elias said. "The process is still on the way up, but the rebuild is over. There is a sense of relief that it worked. It has rejuvenated baseball in this city. That is so cool to see."
The writer praises the team’s overall athleticism and cites 3B Gunnar Henderson as Exhibit A:
Like (Adley) Rutschman, Henderson is a great athlete:
"If I had concentrated as much on basketball as much as I did on baseball as a kid," Henderson said, shyly, "I probably could have played basketball in college. Maybe the NBA."
That athleticism allows him to play multiple infield positions.
When the Orioles seized first place in the AL East in a stirring series against the Rays after the All-Star break, Henderson doubled to left field, and when Tampa Bay left fielder Randy Arozarena lazily returned the ball to the infield, Henderson took a vacated third base for a triple. It was a signature moment for Henderson and a play that personified this young, hungry team: A great athlete created an advantage by pushing the action.
This year, more kids from the game's best farm system have debuted, starting with Grayson Rodriguez, one of the top young pitching prospects in baseball and the future ace of the Orioles' staff. Infielder Jordan Westburg followed, a player Hyde describes as "just another 6-2, 220-pounder who can run." Then came outfielder Colton Cowser.
I’D BE REMISS IF I DIDN’T POINT OUT, every so often, what a full-of-himself dope this guy is. Here ya go, Colin Cowherd:
The FS1 radio host was speaking about NFL quarterback tiers on his show "The Herd" when he mentioned a tier called "QBs that can't win Super Bowls." In that tier, he included 20 names, specifically calling out Baker Mayfield, Teddy Bridgewater and Dwayne Haskins.
It was Haskins' name that was most notable because Haskins was being grouped into this tier despite tragically passing away in a car accident in last year.
This is the same guy who at the All-Star Break in 2010, referred to Joey Votto as “my pool boy.’’ Votto was the NL MVP that year, missing by one vote being the unanimous choice.
Cowherd hasn’t apologized for his clumsy, stupid mention of Haskins. Don’t hold your breath.
AND FINALLY. . .
I’m looking forward to our Meet the Mobsters Night, disguised as a presentation by Italian tour expert and unsurpassed bon vivant Larry Fannon. Tuscany Larry will be telling vacation dreamers what it’s like to spend 10 days in Tuscany, doing nothing but touring famous places and partaking prodigiously of the world’s best wine.
If that appeals to you, Larry and I welcome your presence tonight at the Oasis Golf and Conference Center in Loveland, 7:30 sharp. You can reach Larry at cruisetheinternet@gmail.com
TUNE O’ THE DAY. . . Pal Tim Lewis, alumnus of the old all-sports station WSAI, posed this question on FB yesterday, paraphrasing: What tune do you automatically turn up the volume on, after hearing the first few notes. Excellent topic.
My son and I are on our stadium tour again and two nights ago, we saw the Brewers destroy the Rockies 12-1. Then last night, they gave the game to the Rockies. Baseball is hard to figure. All during the game, we were keeping track of the Reds. My son just agonizes over Bell’s moves, especially when changing pitchers and I can’t say I blame him. Baseball is run by percentages. That seems to never change regardless of who is running a team. Sometimes that can drive us fans berserk!
I don’t know how this season will turn out. No one does. However, I think the Reds are doing it right as far as the trades they didn’t make goes. This group of kids, and, outside of Joey Bangs, they are that...KIDS; have brought interest in Reds baseball back to Cincinnati. They are exciting, enthusiastic and aggressive and, as a long time fan, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anything quite like it. No matter how they finish, I’m grateful for this. Can they come back from this rut they are in? I want to say yes. I just think they need to “get their mojo back,” so to speak. I’ve noticed a recent lack of aggression by nearly all the players with the exception of TJ Friedl. That young man continues to fight hard. I love it and am hoping it can once again, get Elly, Matt and the others going. If, HUGE if, Greene, Lodolo, and miracle of miracles, Antone come back strong, this could still be a fun ending to a great season.
Kids, like OGs, have short memories, albeit for different reasons, as we OGs unfortunately know. Luckily a short memory is a very useful tool to have in a pennant chase. Kids can bury the memory of a bad stretch fast, and they have no permanent scarring or ingrained memories of past disasters. Heck, they're still seeing ballparks for the first time. It's still very fresh and new to them. They wake up every day still pinching themselves that they're in the major leagues.
OK, so what's my point? Well, quoting my favorite Zen Master; " 'In the beginner's mind there are many possibilities, but in the expert's there are few." These kids are awake and raw, new, anxious to prove themselves. They won't quit until the last game. Their future depends on how they play now. So, even though the odds say this team should regress to the mean, I also say that all it'll take is one more sustained hot streak to restore the earlier infectious confidence and wild abandon on the base paths. That means De La Cruz will have to go back to getting on base, which seems a large ask, but not impossible, the other rooks will have to continue to produce, the bullpen will have to pitch like the 1st half, and Bell will have to go back to being the great juggler he was for the only time in his career during the huge hot streak. Seems like a tall task, but.......they've already done it once. Why not twice? If they get hot again, they'll be in it all the way to the end. That will be fun. So, there is still an upside, potentially, in play. That's about all we got to hang our hat on right now. .